Tigers and Bulldogs square off Starkville

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Meeting in the first of two games scheduled over the next two weeks, the Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs square off at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville this afternoon for an SEC tussle.

Auburn is 13-9 on the season, but currently sits three games under .500 in SEC play at 3-5. The Tigers are coming off a 59-51 win over visiting Georgia on Wednesday night, improving their record at home this year to an impressive 12-1. That said, AU has posted just three wins in its last 12 games overall, and the team is a dismal 1-6 in true road tilts, and 1-8 away from home all together when you factor in a pair of neutral-site affairs.

Mississippi State is a stellar 17-5 on the year, but the 22nd-ranked Bulldogs fell to 4-3 in conference following a 69-57 loss at Florida last Saturday. Like its counterpart today, MSU has been nearly perfect at home this season (12-1), with its only setback there coming against Big 12 power Baylor in a 54-52 final back on December 28. This game marks the first of three straight the Bulldogs will play in front of the hometown faithful.

Auburn owns a 71-64 lead in the all-time series with Mississippi State, and the Tigers have won four of the last six meetings. However, the Bulldogs have owned the series in Starkville over the last decade or so, winning 10 of the last 11 encounters, and doing so by nearly 19 points per game.

For the season, Auburn scores about the same number of points (63.5 ppg) as it allows (63.3 ppg). Unfortunately that trend hasn't continued since SEC play began, as the Tigers are netting just 54.9 ppg in hitting a mere 36.0 percent of their field goal attempts, while foes are limited to 61.1 ppg on 37.6 percent field goal efficiency. As you can see, AU has and continues to play well at the defensive end, but sorely lacks offensive punch. The team has just two double-digit scorers in Frankie Sullivan and Kenny Gabriel, but their 11.9 and 11.8 ppg, respectively, isn't going to intimidate the Bulldogs today, or any opponent for that matter. Gabriel (7.9 rpg) is the team's top rebounder, but Auburn is pretty much dead even on the glass (+0.1), and the turnover battle has resulted in nearly the same (+0.2). The Tigers put on another defensive clinic in the recent win over Georgia, holding those Bulldogs to 25.0 percent shooting from the floor, which included a 6-of-23 showing from three-point land. The Tigers shot just 33.3 percent themselves, and hit only 2-of-11 three-point tries, but they committed just nine giveaways and claimed a 25-19 edge in points from the foul line.

Producing at the offensive end certainly hasn't been a problem for Mississippi State this season, as the team boasts three double-digit scorers and averages 73.0 ppg. Arnett Moultrie (16.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg) is one of a handful of players nationally averaging a double-double, as he continues to make his case for SEC Player of the Year honors, while Dee Bost (15.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.6 apg) and Rodney Hood (11.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) add support from their spots in the MSU backcourt. Renardo Sidney (9.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg) is close to joining the double- digit scorers' club, and he and Moultrie are both shooting better than 51 percent from the field. Defensively, the Bulldogs are yielding 65.7 ppg on typical shooting outputs of .428 overall and .345 from beyond the arc, and they grab 4.1 rpg more than the opposition on average. Moultrie scored 12 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in last week's loss to Florida, but he went just 4-of-10 from the floor and was guilty of six turnovers. Bost scored a dozen points himself, and Brian Bryant chipped in with 11, but the Gators committed only five turnovers and shot 48.2 percent from the field in claiming the hard-fought victory.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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